TABLE-China power shortage forecasts by region

Thu Jun 2, 2011 8:24am GMT
 

 (Adds Tianjin)	
 BEIJING, June 2 (Reuters) - China appears to be heading for
its worst power shortage since 2004, putting pressure on already
squeezed industries and raising the possibility that the world's
second-largest economy will turn into a net importer of diesel.	
 Central, southern, southwestern and eastern provinces have
introduced power use restrictions and rationing since late
March, well ahead of the peak demand season in summer, stoking
worries that shortages could worsen and spread to more regions.	
 (For related analysis, click:[ID:nL3E7FT1FC])	
 Following are details on summer power shortage forecasts,
expected maximum loads, supply capacity in each region, as
reported by local grid operators, local governments or official
media.	
 All numbers are in gigawatts (GW).	
 	
 Province   maximum deficit  maximum load   supply or generation
                	
                                               capacity	
CENTRAL CHINA	
  Jiangxi      2.2-2.4             14.5              12	
  Henan          4.85                               50.7^  	
  Hunan          4.0                16              11.8 	
  Chongqing      2.1               8.5*            11.6^	
EAST CHINA 	
  Zhejiang      3.5-5.0             50              57.2^	
  Anhui         2.5                                 29.3^	
  Jiangsu       11.0                69               59	
  Shanghai    0.6-1.1            28-28.5             27.4	
SOUTH CHINA*	
  Guangdong     4.0-6.5             73              70.9^	
  Guizhou      1.5-2.0              12              32.8^	
  Hainan        0.2                 2.3 -2.5         3.9^	
  Guangxi                           13.5-15.4       25.2^ 	
  Yunnan                            11-12           36.2^	
NORTH CHINA	
  Beijing      over 3.0                              6.3^	
  Shandong       1.0                52              62.7^	
  Hebei          3.0                25-26.6         23.6	
  Tianjin        1.5                11.4            10.9^	
----------------------------------------------------------	
  Total        44.85-49.85	
 ^ total power generating capacity at the end of 2010. It
differs from supply capacity that includes delicate power
supplies from other regions or excludes delicate generation for
other regions. In addition, different types of generators,
nuclear, thermal, hydro or wind, have different utilisation
rates and thus represent different effective supply capacity.	
 * Forecasts are for the second quarter.	
 	
	
 (Reporting by Jim Bai and Tom Miles; Editing by Jacqueline
Wong)	
 

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