TABLE-China power shortage forecasts by region

Tue Jul 19, 2011 10:36am GMT

(Updates deficits for five southern provinces)	
    BEIJING, July 19 (Reuters) - Five southern Chinese
provinces, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan and
Hainan, may face power shortages of up to 7 to 8 gigawatts (GW)
in the third quarter, the local grid operator said in a report
published on Tuesday.	
    The provinces had to cut power supplies of up to 9.01 GW to
users at some point in the first half due to lower than normal
hydro levels and tight coal supplies to thermal power plants,
China Southern Electric Power Grid said in the report published
    Of the expected deficit, Guangdong alone could account for 4
to 6 GW and Guizhou will have shortfalls of 1.5 to 2 GW, the
grid operator said. The grid operator's forecasts were similar
to its estimates for the second quarter.	
    China has cut power supplies to users in some regions from
earlier this year due to reasons including strong demand, high
coal costs, low hydro levels and insufficient transmission and
generation capacity.	
    But power woes have eased since last month after widespread
rainfall lifted hydropower generation and led to a fall in power
use for air conditioning.	
    The central government raised power prices in some regions 
and some local governments also offered direct subsidies to help
generating firms, suggesting summer power shortages may not be
as bad as anticipated.	
    Following are details of summer power shortage forecasts,
expected maximum loads, supply capacity in each region, as
reported by local grid operators, local governments or official
    All numbers are in gigawatts (GW), except Hubei's estimated
 Province   maximum deficit  maximum load   supply or generation
  Jiangxi      2.2-2.4             14.5              12	
  Henan          4.85                               50.7^  	
  Hunan          4.0                16              11.8 	
  Chongqing      2.0                12              11.6^	
  Hubei        1.8-3.8~           25.2              49.1^ 	
  Zhejiang      3.5-5.0             50              57.2^	
  Anhui         2.5                                 29.3^	
  Jiangsu       11.0                69              59	
  Shanghai     0.6-1.1           28-28.5            27.4	
SOUTH CHINA*    7-8                118.2	
  Guangdong     4-6                 73              70.9^	
  Guizhou      1.5-2.0              12              32.8^	
  Hainan                         2.3-2.5             3.9^	
  Guangxi                       13.5-15.4           25.2^ 	
  Yunnan                          11-12             36.2^	
  Beijing       1.02               19.1             6.3^	
  Shandong      1.0                52              62.7^	
  Hebei         3.0              25-26.6           23.6	
  Tianjin       1.5                11.4            10.9^	
  Total#       45.97-51.17 	
    ^ Total power generating capacity at the end of 2010. It
differs from supply capacity that includes delicate power
supplies from other regions or excludes delicate generation for
other regions. In addition, different types of generators,
nuclear, thermal, hydro or wind, have different utilisation
rates and thus represent different effective supply capacity.	
    * Forecasts are for the third quarter.	
    ~ in billion kilowatt hours	
    # Not including Hubei	
 (Reporting by Jim Bai and Ken Wills; Editing by Jacqueline

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