REFILE-UPDATE 1-US cuts world oil demand growth on economy

Wed Sep 7, 2011 8:09pm GMT
 

(Refiles to fix spelling of Colombia in paragraph 11)
    * World oil demand growth seen 250,000 bpd lower - EIA
    * EIA lowers economic growth assumptions
    * Non-OPEC, OPEC output expected to recover next year
    * Downside risk to oil price dominates
 (Adds OPEC, non-OPEC supply outlook, details)
    WASHINGTON, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Global oil demand will grow
less than previously projected next year as the economy
staggers, the U.S. government forecast on Wednesday.
    World consumption will rise by 1.39 million barrels per day
or around 1.6 percent next year, the Energy Information
Administration said, some 250,000 bpd less than it forecast a
month ago. This year's growth forecast was unchanged at 1.37
million bpd.
    The lower projection, which brings the EIA into line with
the consensus of other analysts [ID:nN1E7850SG], is the result
of throttling back U.S. economic growth estimates following a
wave of data suggesting the recovery has stalled.
    The cost of crude for refiners was expected to reach $103
per barrel in 2012 instead of last month's forecast of $107 per
barrel, the EIA said, with added pressure from higher than
expected production growth from countries outside the OPEC
cartel, including Brazil, Canada and China.
    The EIA warned that prices are at risk of rising quickly
due to unrest in oil-producing regions and as demand from
developing countries could be stronger than expected.
    "Yet downside risks arguably predominate," as fears persist
about the rate of global economic recovery, contagion effects
of the debt crisis in the European Union, and other fiscal
issues facing governments, it said.
    GDP GROWTH DIMS
    The EIA's forecasts are based on U.S. real gross domestic
product growth of 1.5 percent this year and 1.9 percent next
year, compared with growth of 2.4 percent and 2.6 percent in
last month's forecast.
    It forecast oil-consumption weighted world GDP to grow 3.1
percent and 3.8 percent in 2011 and 2012, compared with 3.4
percent and 4.1 percent in the previous outlook.
    Oil production from nations outside the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries should rise 770,000 barrels per
day in 2012 to average 53.1 million barrels a day, the Energy
Information Administration forecast in a monthly report.
    In August, the EIA had forecast production at a slightly
lower 53.08 million barrels per day.
    Production was also expected to rise from Colombia,
Kazakhstan and the United States, the EIA said.
    Oil output from OPEC was expected to be mixed as only about
half of Libya's exports will recover by the end of next year,
the EIA said. In 2011, OPEC exports should fall about 360,000
bpd, the EIA said.
    The restoration of at least some Libyan exports next year
will help boost 2012 OPEC production by 510,000 bpd to 36.23
million bpd, it said.
    Production is not expected to grow from all non-OPEC
countries. Russian oil output is expected to fall about 120,000
bpd to 10.08 million bpd next year.
    (Reporting by Timothy Gardner and Emily Stephenson; Editing
by Dale Hudson and Jonathan Leff)

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