RPT-ANALYSIS-Brazil's Rousseff backs off Cabinet purge

(Repeats with no changes in text)
* President needs backing of small coalition parties
* Her tough line on corruption annoyed allies
* Opposition leader says she still under Lula's shadow

By Anthony Boadle
BRASILIA, Jan 13 (Reuters) - At first blush, it might
seem like the clock is ticking on Fernando Bezerra's days as a
Brazilian Cabinet minister.
Bezerra has been fighting sensational charges of nepotism and
other ethics breaches in the Brazilian press. The most egregious
accusation: that he used his power to direct a disproportionate
share of funds for natural disaster prevention to his home
state, instead of states where dozens of people have died in
recent weeks from predictable seasonal floods.
Yet it appears that Bezerra, who has denied any wrongdoing,
and most other ministers under a cloud of suspicion are going to
keep their jobs. President Dilma Rousseff is backing off her
plans for a major Cabinet reshuffle early this year, having
decided that she needs their parties' support to pass key
economic legislation.
Rousseff fired six ministers because of corruption or ethics
breaches in 2011, a stance that marked a departure from politics
as usual and boosted her popularity ratings. Top aides have said
since September that Rousseff was going to undertake an even
broader purge shortly after her first anniversary in power on
Jan. 1, even if it meant losing the support of some junior
partners in her 17-party coalition.
Brazil's slowing economy, which flatlined in the third
quarter and is still weak, appears to have changed her plans.
Rousseff will likely need all the support she can muster in
order to keep inflation under control and pass legislation
Brazil needs to modernize its mining and energy sector, and
prepare to host the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics.
"She has adopted a defensive position, because she is
vulnerable," said political scientist Bolivar Lamounier.

Lamounier cited Bezerra, minister of national integration,
as a case in point. His powerful political family from
northeastern Brazil is an example of the kind of old-style
politicians whose expectations of patronage might not jibe with
Rousseff's aspirations of cleaning up Brazilian politics, but
whose support she needs to retain nonetheless.
"They are a powerful clan, a historically backward oligarchy
that still holds power in Pernambuco," he said.

2012: A RISKY POLITICAL YEAR
With local elections in October, 2012 is a crucial year for
Rousseff, one to avoid getting into fights with her partners.
Nor can she risk excluding from her cabinet allied parties like
Bezerra's PSB, which might field rivals to her re-election
chances in 2014.
Rousseff had hoped to put her own stamp on a government she
inherited from predecessor and mentor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva,
on whose huge popularity she rode into office. The changes are
now expected to be limited to replacing ministers who were fired
or are leaving to run for local office.
Government sources say there would be no immediate change at
the top of state-run oil giant Petrobras, whose chief
executive, Jose Sergio Gabrielli, is thought to be toying with
the idea of running for governor of Bahia state in 2014.
Brazil's economic team, headed by Finance Minister Guido
Mantega, is expected to stay in place as Rousseff's government
focuses on curbing inflation and boosting growth that lost steam
last year in the global slowdown from the euro zone debt crisis.
Emerging power Brazil has an economy about the size of Britain's
but growth slowed from a booming 7.5 percent in 2010 to around
3 percent in 2011.
Brazil's first woman president ended her first year in power
with a staggering 72 percent approval rating, compared to the
charismatic Lula's 66 percent, according to a CNI/Ibope poll.
Even with that level of support, it is hard for Rousseff to
shake up the political system and break with the past.
Despite enjoying a massive majority in Congress and a
smaller opposition than her two predecessors faced, Rousseff was
not able to achieve much more than an increase in the minimum
wage in 2011. Her government suffered defeat over a proposal to
tax financial transactions to pay for healthcare, which raised
questions about its ability to maintain fiscal discipline.
David Fleischer, a political science professor at Brasilia
University, expects Congress to pass pending forestry and mining
codes, a hotly debated bill sharing out with the rest of the
country the royalties enjoyed by Brazil's three oil producing
states, and a law regulating foreign farm land acquisitions.
But tax reform, a top demand by Brazilian businessmen who
complain that high taxes and poor services, port and roads make
it harder for Brazil to compete in a slowing global economy,
will not happen, analysts and government aides said.
Opposition leader Senator Sergio Guerra, of the Brazilian
Social Democracy Party (PSDB), says that's because Rousseff has
not shown leadership and is at odds with her coalition allies.
Guerra said nothing had changed under Rousseff because the
ousted ministers were replaced by members of the same parties.
"(Rousseff's) government hasn't even started yet," he said.

(Additional reporting by Jeferson Ribeiro; Editing by Brian
Winter and Philip Barbara)