S.Africa 2010 coal exports seen 65-68 mln T: analysts

By Jackie Cowhig

LONDON (Reuters) - South Africa's thermal coal exports could rise to as high as 68 million tonnes in 2010 but are more likely to be 64-65 million compared to 60 million in 2009, analysts and coal producer sources said on Tuesday.

The restricted growth in South African coal exports has been one of the major supply bottlenecks this year and will continue to support prices next year, they said.

"South African exports we think will reach around 68 million tonnes in 2010. It could be less than that, it all depends on Transnet, but exports should be a bit better than this year," Emmanuel Fages, Carbon and Coal Analyst at Societe Generale, told Reuters.

Conflicting statements on the country's rail and port export capacity - theoretical and actual - have caused confusion, coal market sources said.

Indian trader coal buyers, in particular, said they are concerned South Africa's exports will not rise enough next year to meet growing demand from the sub-Continent.

"Transnet has been saying they have 80 million tonnes or so capacity, in theory but in practice it's very different and the figures fluctuate widely from week to week," one South African coal industry source said.

"There's no way they're going to move 68 or 69 million tonnes next year, although that's what they've said. They'll be lucky to do 64-65 million, which in itself is a big move up from this year, which has been terrible," a producer source said.

The Phase V expansion to Richards Bay Coal Terminal has been built, boosting theoretical export capacity to 92 million tonnes per year.