Cocoa production in I.Coast seen falling in 2011/12
* Ivorian cocoa production to resume downtrend-Macquarie
* Global 2010/11 cocoa surplus at 149,000 T-Macquarie
* Global chocolate consumption up 3 pct-Armajaro
By Marcy Nicholson
PARADISE ISLAND, Bahamas, April 2 (Reuters) - Cocoa production in top grower and war-stricken Ivory Coast will likely decrease over the next two years, leaving the rest of the producing nations to pick up the slack for global demand, Macquarie Bank's Kona Haque said on Saturday.
"Right now there's not a lot of incentive for farmers to tend to the midcrop (in Ivory Coast). They probably don't even have workers there," Haque said, while speaking on a panel at the Cocoa Merchants' Association of America conference in the Bahamas.
"We expect Ivory Coast to resume its downward trend (in production)."
Up to one million Ivorians have fled fighting in the main city Abidjan alone, with others uprooted across the country, the U.N. refugee agency said last week. [ID:nLDE72O202]