METALS-Copper falls with euro, tracks shares lower

Fri Aug 13, 2010 4:20pm GMT
 

 * Euro erases gains, falls vs the dollar, equities down
 * LME tin in backwardation, first time since Nov
 * U.S. retail sales rebound
 
 (Updates prices)
 By Humeyra Pamuk and Rebekah Curtis
 LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Copper fell on Friday, tracking
equities lower as U.S. data disappointed investors, and as a
rising dollar made metals costlier for non-U.S. investors.
 Copper CMCU3 for three-months delivery on the London Metal
Exchange closed at $7,156 a tonne versus $7,260 a tonne at the
close on Thursday.
 The euro fell to a three-week low versus the dollar as the
U.S. currency rose versus a major currency basket. [USD/]
 "We are in the seasonally soft period, there's a real lack
of conviction out there," said Daniel Brebner, an analyst at
Deutsche Bank. "The market is wary of economic data."
 But he added that copper had remained resilient recently.
 "It's held up quite well given how much negative newsflow's
come though over the last week."
 Investors remained wary about the pace of U.S. economic
growth. U.S. consumer sentiment inched up in early August from
July, a tad above expectations, but consumers see little
improvement in the economy ahead, a survey showed.
[ID:nN13177086]
 And retail sales rebounded in July but showed hints of
lingering economic softness. [ID:nN13180040]
 Copper rose earlier when data showed European economic
growth accelerated sharply in the second quarter of this year.
[ID:nN1274714]
 Copper's rally to a three-month high of $7,527 a tonne last
week was stalled by recent data from the U.S., showing a
slowdown in the pace of economic recovery.
 "There's no good news out there," an LME trader said. "It's
been pretty bleak lately so I don't see any reason that this
afternoon's numbers would be any different," he said.
 
 TIGHTER MARKETS
 Fundamentals could cushion a potential fall in copper
prices, with global output down sharply in the first half of
2010, signalling a tighter supply/demand balance in the months
ahead. [ID:nN12119254]
 A continued drawdown in LME stockpiles, suggesting improving
demand, had boosted copper futures by around 21 percent from
eight-month lows touched in early June.
 In Shanghai, the weekly copper inventory rose 7.1 percent to
113,870 tonnes this week, data from Shanghai Futures Exchange
showed, the second straight week of increase. [ID:nTST000339]
 Tight supplies looks to be a feature of other metal markets
as well. In aluminium CMAL3 worries about near-term supplies
have narrowed the contango -- the discount between the cash and
three-month contracts MAL0-3 -- to about $8 a tonne from $33 a
tonne mid-June.
 It traded at $2,110 a tonne versus Thursday's $2,163.5 a
tonne. Zinc CMZN3 was at $2,047 a tonne from $2,056 while lead
CMPB3 was at $2,057 a tonne from $2,100.
 LME cash tin MSN0 moved to a premium over the three-month
price MSNO-3, going into backwardation for the first time in
more than eight months. [ID:nSGE67C01A]
 The backwardation suggests looming tightness in supply,
although tin is a relatively illiquid market and is the smallest
on the LME.
 Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of the metal, said
on Thursday its refined tin output for 2010 may fall 20 percent
from a government target of 105,000 tonnes as unseasonably long
rains hamper mining. [ID:nJAK407383]
 Three-month LME tin CMSN3 traded at $20,750 from $20,500 a
tonne. Nickel CMNI3 was at $21,275 a tonne from $21,500.

Metal Prices at 1610 GMT
Comex copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in
yuan/T
 Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2009   Ytd Pct
                                                          move
 COMEX Cu       324.85       -3.55     -1.08     334.65     -2.93
 LME Alum      2110.00      -53.50     -2.47    2230.00     -5.38
 LME Cu        7170.00      -90.00     -1.24    7375.00     -2.78
 LME Lead      2065.00      -35.00     -1.67    2432.00    -15.09
 LME Nickel   21400.00     -100.00     -0.47   18525.00     15.52
 LME Tin      20700.00      200.00     +0.98   16950.00     22.12
 LME Zinc      2045.00      -11.00     -0.54    2560.00    -20.12
 SHFE Alu     15415.00      175.00     +1.15   17160.00    -10.17
 SHFE Cu*     57400.00     1000.00     +1.77   59900.00     -4.17
 SHFE Zin     16985.00      450.00     +2.72   21195.00    -19.86
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
 (Additional reporting by Manolo Serapio Jr in SINGAPORE and
Michael Taylor in London; editing by James Jukwey and Alison
Birrane)

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