TABLE-Australian PM Gillard set for increased majority

Thu Jul 22, 2010 5:35am GMT
 

 CANBERRA, July 22 (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister
Julia Gillard's Labor is on track to win the August 21 election
with an increased majority, having extended her opinion poll
lead over the conservative opposition in the first week of the
campaign, the latest Reuters Poll Trend found. [ID:nSGE66L012]
           Latest poll results, in percent:
         Date      Primary             Two-Party Preferred
                LP-NP   Labor   Gap    LP-NP   Labor   Gap
Poll Trend  Jul 22   41.1   41.6     0.5    46.5    53.5    7.0
3 Poll Avg  Jul 22   40.3   40.5     0.2    46.2    53.8    7.6
Newspoll    Jul 18   38.0   42.0     4.0    45.0    55.0   10.0
Morgan      Jul 11   41.0   40.5    -0.5    45.5    54.5    9.0
Nielsen     Jul 10   42.0   39.0    -3.0    48.0    52.0    4.0
Essential   Jul 19   39.0   41.0     2.0    45.0    55.0   10.0
Galaxy      Jul 18   44.0   38.0    -6.0    50.0    50.0    0.0
Election    Nov 07   41.8    43.4    1.6    47.3    52.7    5.4
                Preferred Prime Minister
                 Abbott   Gillard   Gap    Poll Trend Jul 22
  30.8     56.0      25.2   3 Poll Avg Jul 22   31.0     56.5  
25.5   Newspoll   Jul 18   27.0     57.0      30.0   Nielsen
Jul 10   35.0     56.0      21.0
           REUTERS POLL TREND SINCE MARCH 2009  Date      
Primary         Two-Party Preferred    Preferred PM
     LP-NP  Labor  Gap   LP-NP  Labor  Gap     LP   Labor
Gap Jul 22  41.1   41.6   0.5   46.5   53.5    7.0    30.8 
56.0 25.2 Jul  2  41.7   40.6  -1.1   47.8   52.2    4.4   
32.4  53.4 21.0 Jun 10  42.3   38.4  -3.9   49.5   50.5    0.9 
  35.2  50.4 15.3 May 20  42.2   37.4  -4.7   49.7   50.3   
0.6    35.2  49.4 14.2 May 2   41.4   40.0  -1.4   48.2   51.8 
  3.6    32.8  52.1 19.3 Apr 22  39.4   42.8   3.4   45.6  
54.4    8.9    30.5  55.4 24.9 Mar 28  39.0   43.7   4.7   44.7
  55.3   10.5    30.5  57.0 26.5 Mar 18  39.5   42.7   3.2  
45.7   54.3    8.6    31.1  55.6 24.5 Feb 28  40.1   41.8   1.7
  46.5   53.5    7.0    30.8  55.4 24.6 Feb 18  40.2   41.8  
1.6   46.4   53.6    7.2    28.4  56.5 28.1 Jan 31  39.3   42.5
  3.2   45.4   54.6    9.1    26.5  57.3 30.8 Jan 17  37.4  
44.4   7.0   43.5   56.5   13.0    25.0  57.6 32.6 Dec 6   36.2
  45.1   8.9   42.6   57.4   14.9    21.8  60.8 39.0 Nov 29 
36.0   44.6   8.6   42.8   57.2   14.4    19.6  64.0 44.4 Nov
15  37.3   43.6   6.4   44.2   55.8   11.6    20.6  64.5 43.9
Nov 7   37.8   44.9   7.1   44.2   55.8   11.6    21.8  65.5
43.7 Oct 30  36.0   47.4  11.3   42.2   57.8   15.7    20.3 
66.8 46.5 Oct  1  35.3   48.0  12.7   41.1   58.9   17.7   
19.6  66.3 46.7 Sep 28  36.3   47.1  10.7   41.8   58.2   16.3 
  19.3  66.4 47.1 Sep 6   36.7   46.4   9.7   42.6   57.4  
14.9    20.2  67.1 47.0 Aug 27  36.2   46.7  10.5   42.6   57.4
  14.9    20.0  66.2 46.3 Aug 9   36.4   47.2  10.8   42.2  
57.8   15.6    17.7  65.7 47.9 Jul 26  36.9   46.8   9.9   42.4
  57.6   15.2    16.4  65.1 48.7 Jul 12  37.6   45.4   7.8  
43.4   56.6   13.2    18.6  65.5 46.9 Jul 2   38.3   44.8   6.5
  44.1   55.9   11.8    21.9  63.1 41.2 Jun 14  38.3   45.1  
6.9   44.4   55.6   11.3    24.3  58.7 34.4 May 31  37.6   45.9
  8.3   44.1   55.9   11.9    26.0  57.0 31.1 May 21  37.0  
46.3   9.3   43.3   56.7   13.4    24.2  60.6 36.4 May  3  36.9
  46.7   9.8   42.6   57.4   14.8    20.5  64.4 43.9 Apr 19 
35.8   48.2  12.5   41.2   58.8   17.6    18.6  66.0 47.4 Apr
12  36.0   48.6  12.7   41.3   58.7   17.4    20.4  66.3 45.9
Mar 22  36.5   47.8  11.3   41.8   58.2   16.4    21.0  65.2
44.2
 NOTE: The Reuters Poll Trend is derived by averaging the
latest available polls and then applying a five-term Henderson
moving average, similar to the trend estimates published by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics.
 Since it smoothens volatility by dampening short-term
movements, users are cautioned to bear in mind any events that
might explain sudden changes.
 Any discrepancy due to rounding.
 (Reporting by James Grubel)



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