METALS-Copper firm, but Friday's jobs number worries

Thu Sep 2, 2010 7:48am GMT
 

 * LME copper steady, new 4-month high on Shanghai
 * Markets heartened by manufacturing data, jobs report
looms
 * Demand may rise after NDRC urges accelerated construction
 * Coming Up; U.S. initial jobless claims: 1230 GMT
 (Updates prices)
 By Nick Trevethan
 SINGAPORE, Sept 2 (Reuters) - Copper touched a fresh
four-month peak in Shanghai on Thursday, before easing, while
London was flat as worries about Friday's U.S. payrolls report
kept bullish fervour in check.
 Three-month LME copper CMCU3 edged up to $7,625 by 0713
GMT, after strong manufacturing data from China and the United
States helped lift prices by more than $200 in the previous
session to $7,647 a tonne, its highest since April 27.
 Early in Asia trading copper touched a high of $7,643.
 "The manufacturing data was good, very good in fact, but
the fact remains that without job creation, the U.S. economy
isn't going anywhere very fast," a trader in Melbourne said.
 "This is short-term euphoria built on shaky ground. The
market is getting very excited about next year, with good
cause, but it's running well ahead of fundamentals and it needs
a healthy $400-$600 correction before we start to build a
rally."
 The positive data from the world's top two economies
overcame a weak U.S. private sector payrolls number that the
market largely ignored. However, the U.S. jobs market will
swing back into focus on Friday with government data for
August. [ID:nN01115648] [ID:nTOE68001O]
 "Given the run of numbers in the past few weeks, the market
is more pessimistic about macroeconomic data," Jonathan
Barratt, managing director of Sydney-based Commodity Broking
Services, said.
 "So the jobs numbers, if they come in badly, may be better
than we have priced in. However, it is interesting that the
optimism about recovery comes more from the speculative end of
the market."
 Benchmark third-month Shanghai copper SCFc3 also pared
early gains, rising 420 yuan to 59,920 yuan by the close.
Copper's early peak at 60,370 yuan was its strongest since the
end of April.
 Optimism about Chinese demand is slowly recovering after
flagging in the third quarter on worries that a crackdown on
property investment would slow consumption of a key material
like copper.
 However Barratt noted that comments from Chinese planners
urging the government to accelerate state-backed construction
projects that have already been started was a sign the brakes
were coming off.
 The country's powerful National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) said any investment projects forming part of
the government's 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus
package should be launched before the autumn.
 In other metals, LME nickel CMNI3, lead CMPB3 and zinc
CMZN3 were the biggest gainers, up 1.2 percent, 0.7 percent
and 0.8 percent respectively following gains of 1.7 percent,
2.2 percent and 3.3 percent in the previous session. Shanghai
zinc futures SZNc3 rose 1.6 percent.
 "The Chinese prefer to arb zinc rather than copper. The
volumes some days are very strong," a Sydney trader said.
 The differential between LME zinc and the Shanghai
benchmark was open a fraction at around 100 yuan in favour of
importing, accounting for import duties and VAT. For copper the
window was shut with Shanghai some 800 yuan cheaper than LME on
a VAT-adjusted basis.
 For a graphic, click:
 here
 g   
 Base metals prices at 0713 GMT
 Metal         Last       Change   Pct Move  End 2009 YTD pct
chg
 LME Cu        7625.00     19.00     +0.25    7375.00     
3.39
 SHFE Cu*     59920.00    420.00     +0.71   59900.00     
0.03
 LME Alum      2104.00     -4.00     -0.19    2230.00    
-5.65
 SHFE Alum*   15540.00     65.00     +0.42   17160.00    
-9.44
 COMEX Cu**     346.55     -0.30     -0.09     332.75     
4.15
 LME Zinc      2149.25     16.25     +0.76    2560.00   
-16.04
 SHFE Zinc    17685.00    280.00     +1.61   21195.00   
-16.56
 LME Nickel   21300.00    250.00     +1.19   18525.00    
14.98
 LME Lead      2129.00     14.00     +0.66    2432.00   
-12.46
 LME Tin      21400.00    -50.00     -0.23   16950.00    
26.25
 LME/Shanghai arb^           838
 Dollar/yuan          6.8105 \ 6.8153
 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper
  * 3rd contact month for SHFE aluminium, copper and zinc
  ^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE
third month
 (Editing by Himani Sarkar)















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