UPDATE 2-OPEC oil output rises in June-survey

Wed Jul 1, 2009 1:06pm GMT
 
 * Output rises for second month despite Nigeria violence
 * Compliance with cutbacks slips to 72 pct from 75 pct
 * OPEC-11 pumping 1.18 million bpd above target
  
 (Adds details, quotes)
 By Alex Lawler
 LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - OPEC oil supply rose in June as
higher output from several members of the group offset cutbacks
in Nigeria caused by militant attacks on the oil industry, a
Reuters survey showed on Wednesday.
 Supply from the 11 members of the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries bound by output targets rose to
26.02 million barrels per day (bpd) from 25.91 million bpd in
May, the survey of oil firms, OPEC officials and analysts found.
 The survey suggests OPEC has made 72 percent of promised
supply cutbacks, down from 75 percent in May, and comes as oil
prices have risen to $71 a barrel from a low below $33 in
December. Higher output implies OPEC's aim of reducing oil
stocks in industrialized countries will take more time.
 "Compliance has slipped from the peaks it reached in March,"
said Harry Tchilinguirian, analyst at BNP Paribas. "That will
mean that the decline in OECD inventories as a result of OPEC
supply cuts will be longer in the making given weak oil demand."
 OPEC has agreed to cut supply by 4.2 million bpd since
September as the economic crisis eroded demand. The group agreed
to maintain its output ceiling at a meeting on May 28 and said
it was urging members to maintain compliance.
 Supply was 1.18 million bpd higher in June than the implied
target for the OPEC 11 of 24.84 million bpd, according to the
survey, meaning the group lowered output by 3.02 million bpd of
the promised curbs.
 "Output is rising slightly, but compliance is still quite
remarkable by historical standards," said an oil executive,
recalling less-successful agreements by the group in the 1990s
to limit output.
 June and May's compliance is down from 81 percent in April
and March, when adherence looks to have peaked according to
Reuters estimates. OPEC's historical average compliance is 60
percent according to the International Energy Agency.
 Oil rose on Wednesday, in part because of the Nigerian
output disruptions. U.S. crude CLc1 was up $1.05 a barrel at
$70.94 as of 1202 GMT.
 
 NIGERIA
 Output would have risen in Nigeria, traditionally Africa's
top exporter, without attacks on the country's oil industry.
 The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)
militant group has carried out a wave of attacks since May,
mostly in the western Niger Delta, hitting facilities belonging
to Shell (RDSa.L: Quote), Chevron (CVX.N: Quote) and Agip (ENI.MI: Quote).
 Output in Nigeria averaged 1.73 million bpd during June, a
drop of 60,000 bpd from May according to the survey. Exports in
June had been scheduled at 1.83 million bpd.
 Elsewhere in the group, several countries raised supplies
including Angola, holder of the OPEC presidency this year
[ID:nLU814853].
 Angola exported 1.79 million bpd in June, the survey found,
more than either of the figures cited as its OPEC output target.
Preliminary programmes suggest a further rise in July.
 OPEC's Gulf producers remained the most compliant. Saudi
Arabia, OPEC's top producer, kept output below its OPEC target
of 8.05 million bpd in June despite a 40,000 bpd rise in supply.
The survey also found increased output from Iran, the
second-largest OPEC producer, which is pumping 450,000
bpd above its target.
 Venezuela pumped 2.2 million bpd, 20,000 bpd more than in
May, the survey found. Caracas has taken issue with outside
analysts' estimates of its production, saying it is higher than
they have stated at 3 million bpd.
 Iraq's production increased because of higher exports of
1.925 million bpd from northern and southern ports. Exports from
the north rose due to the start of supplies from the
semi-autonomous Kurdish region.
 Libya and Algeria are showing relatively high compliance,
and buyers of their crude say there is no evidence to suggest
they have raised output or offered to sell extra cargoes despite
higher prices.
 Including Iraq, all 12 OPEC members pumped 28.49 million bpd
last month, up 180,000 bpd from May, the survey found.
 Following is oil output in millions of barrels per day.
              June       May       Implied total  Implied
              output     output    cut*           target
Algeria          1.24       1.24      0.2            1.2
Angola           1.82       1.76      0.24           1.52**
Ecuador          0.46       0.46      0.07           0.43
Iran             3.79       3.76      0.56           3.34
Kuwait           2.24       2.25      0.37           2.22
Libya            1.53       1.52      0.25           1.47
Nigeria          1.73       1.79      0.32           1.67
Qatar            0.74       0.73      0.12           0.73
Saudi Arabia     8.02       7.98      1.32           8.05
UAE              2.25       2.24      0.38           2.22
Venezuela        2.2        2.18      0.36           1.99
OPEC 11         26.02      25.91      4.2           24.84
Iraq             2.47       2.4 (R)
TOTAL OPEC      28.49      28.31(R)
Overproduction   1.18       1.07
Cut achieved     3.02       3.13
Compliance       72 pct     75 pct 
 (R) = Revised
 *Includes cut of 2.2 million bpd starting from Jan. 1 and 2
million bpd of existing curbs. The breakdown comes from an OPEC
internal document obtained by Reuters during OPEC's December
2008 meeting in Algeria and was not officially released by OPEC.
 **Angola says its target is 1.656 million bpd. OPEC has not
clarified whether this or 1.52 million bpd is Angola's target.
 OPEC quotas exclude condensate and natural gas liquids and
apply to supply rather than wellhead output, defined to exclude
movements to, but not sales from, storage. Saudi and Kuwaiti
data includes Neutral Zone. Saudi data excludes oil produced for
Bahrain. Venezuelan data includes upgraded synthetic oil.
  (Reporting by Alex Lawler; editing by Barbara Lewis)

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