ANALYSIS-No fillip from Africa for stressed world economy

Tue Apr 7, 2009 1:30pm GMT
 

By Rebecca Harrison

JOHANNESBURG, April 7 (Reuters) - Once hailed as crisis proof, African consumers are feeling the pinch, and hopes they can cushion shrinking company profits in the rich world by shopping their way through a global recession are evaporating.

Six months ago, Africa outside South Africa looked virtually immune from the financial crisis, with sound banks and emerging middle classes hungry for cell phones, branded beer and fridges.

While rich-world consumers tightened their belts, firms like SABMiller (SAB.L: Quote), UK-based PZ Cussons (PZC.L: Quote) and South African retailers Shoprite (SHPJ.J: Quote) and Massmart (MSMJ.J: Quote) pointed to Africa as a bright spot with significant untapped demand. But as the credit crunch spirals into a full-blown global recession, mining firms hit by a commodity downturn are slashing African jobs, remittances from abroad are shrinking and tourists are delaying trips to the continent's beaches and safari parks.

Like shoppers in the West and Asia, Africans have less cash to spare, and bullish forecasts about consumer-driven growth look naive.

"Any thinking that the African consumer is somehow immune from the crisis is just flawed," said Razia Khan, regional head of research at Standard Chartered Bank. "The overall picture is one of vulnerability."

Take oil-rich Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation.

Once an exciting prospect for consumer firms, Nigeria is battling a sharp fall in the naira currency as low oil prices dent its growth outlook, pushing up the price of imported goods from rice to textiles just as shoppers try to spend less.

"Before, some people carried a trolley full like this," said Bassem Sawan, 30, manager of Goodies supermarket in an upscale district of Lagos, pointing to a trolley stacked with biscuits.   Continued...

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