SCENARIOS-What next for Ethiopia's leadership?

ADDIS ABABA, July 2 (Reuters) - Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi wants to step down after 18 years running sub-Saharan Africa's second most populous country. [NLN889141]

But Meles says he is "bored" of questions about this, and will only repeat he needs the permission of his ruling party before he can leave. [NL071549]

So when might he go? And what will happen if he does?

Here are some possible scenarios:

MELES GOES AT SEPTEMBER PARTY CONGRESS?

* Unlikely. The 54-year-old needs the permission of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) party's annual September congress before he can move aside. But it is doubtful he will ask for its blessing this year, analysts say. And, even if he did, they probably would not accept it a year before Ethiopia has its next national election due in June 2010.

OPPOSITION WIN 2010 ELECTIONS, MELES LOSES POWER?