Nigeria ruling party faces tough regional contests

By Nick Tattersall

ABUJA (Reuters) - Nigeria's ruling party may be in little doubt that President Goodluck Jonathan will win April elections, but it faces a tougher battle to maintain a strong parliamentary majority and wide control of local government.

The People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate has won every presidential race in Africa's most populous nation since military rule ended in 1999. History looks set to repeat itself after Jonathan's decisive victory in last month's primaries.

But many analysts say the PDP, which has dominated Nigerian politics for more than a decade, could lose ground in parliamentary polls on April 2 and in state governorship polls on April 16, a week either side of the presidential vote.

Opposition to Jonathan -- the first head of state from the southern Niger Delta oil region -- could manifest itself in the outcome of regional polls in the north, while the opposition is seen extending its control in south-western states around Lagos.

"The PDP is the only party with a truly national footprint so their candidate should win the presidential elections fairly easily, if opposition parties cannot agree a working coalition and joint presidential candidate," said Kayode Akindele of Lagos-based consultancy Greengate Strategic Partners.

"The real competition could be at the sub-presidential level ... At the state and national assembly levels the opposition parties can leverage off their respective regional strengths."

Nigeria's president needs both the support of state governors and parliament to push through reforms and govern with a strong mandate. A poor regional showing by the PDP could weaken Jonathan's hand in the next administrative term.

Local rivalries have been at the root of past electoral violence in Nigeria and there has already been isolated unrest and controversy over candidates' lists for the state votes.