Japan PM's party may fall far short of poll target

By Yoko Kubota and Chisa Fujioka

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Democratic Party could fall far short of Prime Minister Naoto Kan's target in this weekend's upper house poll, media said on Wednesday, putting his job at risk and foiling efforts to curb a huge public debt.

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which swept to power for the first time last year with promises of change, will almost certainly run the government regardless of the outcome on Sunday as it controls the powerful lower house.

But the party needs a majority in the upper chamber to enact laws and implement policies smoothly.

Stock market experts said the policy deadlock likely to ensue if the Democrats fared badly and struggled to find new allies would be worrisome, but that investors had grown accustomed to political confusion in Japan and were unlikely to overreact.

Kan, who took over last month as Japan's fifth prime minister in three years, has put fiscal reform at the centre of the campaign, including a possible doubling of the 5 percent sales tax to curb a public debt already nearly twice the size of GDP.

Kan has set a modest target of winning at least 54 seats, the same number that the DPJ has up for grabs in the election but fewer than the 60 it needs for an outright majority in the 242-seat chamber. Half the seats are being contested.

But a July 4-6 survey by Kyodo news agency published on Wednesday showed the DPJ might win fewer than 50 seats, and the Tokyo Shimbun newspaper forecast a similar result.

"If they get more than 50 seats, the Kan administration can continue, but if below 50, calls for him to take responsibility will emerge," said independent analyst Atsuo Ito.