May 23, 2018 / 2:42 AM / 2 years ago

Shanghai rebar falls to 4-week low on glut worries, technical selling

* Rebar falls for 4th day, iron ore sinks for 6th day

* MACD below zero line, SMA shows “death cross”

* Steel prices seen on declining trend amid tepid demand-analysts

BEIJING, May 23 (Reuters) - China’s construction steel rebar futures fell on Wednesday to trade near a four-week low, as supply glut concerns continued to weigh on market sentiment, offsetting the impact of overcapacity inspections.

The most-active rebar contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dipped 1.5 percent to 3,527 yuan ($553.32) a tonne by GMT 0216, having earlier touched a low of 3,517 yuan, a level last seen on April 26.

Worries over a supply glut came as the utilisation rate at steel mills rose to 70.17 percent last week, a level seen before winter curbs took effect in early November, and industrial association data showed daily crude steel output by major steel firms hit a fresh record of 1.94 million tonnes over May 1-10.

Technical analysis also indicates a cautious move among investors, with the MACD struggling below the zero line for a third session.

Rebar prices also broke through their 60-day moving average at 3,543 yuan a tonne, while the 5-day simple moving average fell below the 20-day SMA, in a formation known as a “death cross”.

On Monday, China’s state planner said it would send inspection teams to carry out overcapacity check at steel mills in 21 regions, including the key steelmaking provinces of Hebei, Jiangsu and Shandong, from May 22 to June 15.

“Surprise check may affect production, but in general, steel output will remain at a high level. With demand getting tepid...steel prices would be on a declining trend,” said analysts at Orient Futures in a note.

Spot steel prices went down 0.3 percent to 4,299.02 yuan a tonne on Tuesday, data from Mysteel consultancy showed.

Steelmaking raw materials fell alongside rebar prices. The most-traded iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange sank 1.5 percent to 452.5 yuan a tonne, falling for a sixth consecutive session.

Coking coal futures plunged 4.3 percent to 1,179 yuan a tonne after touching their weakest level in three weeks at 1,173 yuan a tonne.

Coke contract for September delivery slumped 4.1 percent to 1,964.5 yuan, on track for its biggest one-day loss in 5-1/2 months. ($1 = 6.3742 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Muyu Xu and Tom Daly; Editing by Sunil Nair)

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