November 7, 2018 / 7:05 PM / 13 days ago

GRAINS-Soybeans, corn lower ahead of USDA monthly data

    * Analysts see USDA raising U.S. soy ending stocks view
    * Traders seek more clues on U.S.-China trade dispute
    * USDA expected to trim U.S. corn yield, ending stocks
    * Wheat mixed; weaker dollar lends support

 (New throughout; updates prices, adds quotes, changes byline,
dateline, previous PARIS/SYDNEY)
    By Julie Ingwersen
    CHICAGO, Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean futures fell
Wednesday as traders adjusted positions the day before a monthly
report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture in which the
government is expected to raise its forecast of U.S. soy stocks.
    Corn futures eased while wheat was mixed.
    As of 12:53 p.m. CST (1853 GMT), Chicago Board of Trade
January soybeans were down 4-1/2 cents at $8.79-3/4 per
bushel after dipping to $8.76-3/4, the contract's lowest since
Nov. 1.
    CBOT December corn was down 1 cent at $3.72-1/4 a
bushel while December soft red winter wheat was up 1/4
cent at $5.12-1/4 a bushel.
    Analysts surveyed by Reuters on average expect the USDA on
Thursday to trim its estimate of the U.S. soybean yield but
raise its forecast of soy stocks left at the end of the 2018/19
marketing year.
    Rising ending stocks would likely reflect slowing soy export
demand, with Washington and top global soy buyer China locked in
a trade dispute.
    "Yields are coming down a bit, but the bottom line is our
demand leaves a lot to be desired," said Tom Fritz, a partner
with EFG Group in Chicago.
    The United States and China will hold top-level diplomatic
and security talks, which were supposed to be held in Beijing in
October, in Washington on Friday, amid moves to try to resolve a
damaging trade war.
    However, with South American soy harvesting set to begin as
early as December, the window for a recovery in U.S. exports may
be closing.
    "We will maybe pick up some exports if things (talks with
China) go well. But Brazil is ready to start aggressively
exporting again in mid-January because they got their crop in so
early," said Matt Connelly, analyst with the Hightower Report.
    Corn futures followed soybeans lower.
    CBOT wheat futures were choppy as traders digested
conflicting grain export estimates from Russia, the world's top
wheat exporter.
    Russia's agriculture ministry kept its grain export forecast
for 2018/19 at 38 to 39 million tonnes, withdrawing an earlier
lower forecast given by one of its officials.
    A weaker dollar lent support, making U.S. grains more
competitive globally. The dollar softened after midterm
elections split power in the U.S. Congress, giving Democrats
greater ability to check any major initiatives from President
Donald Trump.
    But rallies were capped by sluggish export demand for U.S.
wheat, a factor that pressured K.C. and Minneapolis
 wheat futures.
    "Everybody and their neighbor is aware that U.S. wheat
export stink," Fritz said.
    
    CBOT prices as of 12:52 p.m. CST (1852 GMT): 
                                 Net     Pct  Volume
                        Last  change  change        
 CBOT wheat     WZ8   512.25    0.25     0.1   42919
 CBOT corn      CZ8   372.25   -1.00    -0.3  142887
 CBOT soybeans  SF9   879.75   -4.50    -0.5   57838
 CBOT soymeal   SMZ8  308.30   -3.10    -1.0   33578
 CBOT soyoil    BOZ8   28.13    0.23     0.8   42687
    NOTE: CBOT December wheat and corn and January soybeans
shown in cents per bushel, December soymeal in dollars per short
ton and December soyoil in cents per lb.

 (Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Colin Packham
in Sydney; Editing by Susan Fenton and James Dalgleish)
  
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