April 28, 2015 / 3:34 AM / in 3 years

TABLE-Japan's electricity cost estimates by power source in 2030-METI

April 28 (Reuters) - The following table lays out forecasts
for the cost of electricity generation in Japan in 2030, broken
down by fuel type, outlined on Monday by the Ministry of
Economy, Trade and Industry (METI).
    The estimates were presented to a panel advising the
ministry on costs and will be used for deliberations on the best
electricity mix by fuel type by 2030, which are expected to be
completed by next month. 
    Japan is still trying to work out its basic electricity mix
four years after the meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear
plant threw the country's energy policy into disarray.
    According to the latest forecast, nuclear power would be the
cheapest at 10.1 yen (8 U.S. cents) per kilowatt hour (kWh) by
2030, based on the lower end of the ranges for each fuel type.
    The forecast takes into account the estimated costs for,
compensation and clean up of the affected areas after the
Fukushima crisis and for safety improvements since then, METI
said. It does not take into account the cost of decommissioning
normally operated reactors or the final disposal of reactor
fuel.
    The table below outlines the estimates for each fuel in 2030
in yen per kilowatt hour, comparing them with estimated actual
costs in 2014 and with 2030 costs forecast in 2011. 
    The estimated actual cost for nuclear in 2014 is a
hypothetical estimate derived by the ministry, as no reactors
were in operation during 2014.

                             2030           2014           2011
           Nuclear   minimum 10.1   minimum 10.1    minimum 8.9
              Coal           12.9           12.3           10.3
               Gas           13.4           13.7           10.9
    Wind (onshore)      13.9-21.9           21.9       8.8-17.3
   Wind (offshore)      28.7-33.1            n/a       8.6-23.1
        Geothermal           19.2           19.2       9.2-11.6
             Hydro             11             11           10.6
          Biomass            29.7           29.7      17.4-32.2
     (single fuel)                                
          Biomass            13.3           12.6        9.5-9.8
   (multiple fuel)                                
               Oil      28.9-41.6      30.6-43.4      25.1-38.9
             Solar      12.7-15.5           24.3      12.1-26.4
   (utility scale)                                
             Solar      12.5-16.4           29.4       9.9-20.0
       (household)                                
 Gas cogeneration*      14.4-15.6      13.8-15.0           11.5
 Oil cogeneration*      27.2-31.1      24.0-27.9           19.6
  Cogeneration, also known as "combined heat and power,"
generates extra electricity by recovering heat from station
turbines.
    
($1 = 119.0800 yen)

 (Reporting by Osamu Tsukimori in Tokyo; Editing by Aaron
Sheldrick and Anand Basu)

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