August 16, 2011 / 4:04 PM / 8 years ago

FACTBOX-Libyan oil output - how quickly can it restart?

(Adds details, comment)	
    Aug 16 (Reuters) - Six months of civil war have left Libya's oil industry in chaos, with
fields that once pumped around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) deserted and export terminals,
pumping stations and pipelines damaged by fighting and sabotage.	
    Libya's key oil production and export facilities are on the front line as rebel forces
advance towards the capital of Tripoli and draw close to recapturing strategic assets in the key
oil ports of Marsa El Brega and Zawiyah.	
    As the battle for control of Libya enters what may be its final phase, much of the country's
oil output could be resurrected within months if peace can be established, industry executives
and analysts say.	
    Although it will struggle to return to pre-war output for the foreseeable future, output of
as much as 1 million bpd could be feasible within months, they say.	
    Much will depend on the damage done to infrastructure and equipment in the last stages of
the fighting between forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi and rebels, backed by NATO, trying to end
his 41 years of rule.	
    Libyan rebels said this week they had seized two strategic towns near Tripoli in quick
succession, completing the encirclement of the capital and possibly heralding a period of more
intense fighting across the country.	
    If Gaddafi and his allies quickly move to negotiate an end to fighting, damage to
infrastructure could be minimised.	
    But even if Gaddafi avoids a bloody finish, his departure could usher in a new period of
instability and uncertainty. Analysts, oil companies and Western governments worry that the
opposition is riven by internal division, which could prompt new fighting after Gaddafi has been
removed from power, jeopardising both post-war recovery and the resumption of oil exports. 	
    Following are details of Libya's oil industry, production and assessments of how long it may
take to restore output.	
    * Until the beginning of this year, OPEC member Libya was the world's 17th-largest oil
producer and Africa's third-largest. It holds the continent's largest crude oil reserves. It
sold about 85 percent of its exports to Europe.	
    * Oil production was equivalent to about 2 percent of global consumption, but fighting and
social disruption have cut this to less than 100,000 bpd, and exports have stopped altogether.
Many oilfields are dependent on foreign workers, who have almost all left the country.	
    * Most of Libya's oilfields are around the Sirte Basin, which contains around 80 percent of
its proven reserves and spans the front line between rebel and government forces. Many other key
parts of the country's oil industry are still held by forces loyal to Gaddafi.	
    * Libya has six major oil export terminals, listed with loading volumes for January from the
IEA. The condition of these facilities now is not clear:	
    - Es Sider (447,000 bpd)	
    - Marsa El Brega (51,000 bpd)	
    - Ras Lanuf (195,000 bpd)	
    - Tobruk (51,000 bpd)	
    - Zueitina (214,000 bpd)	
    - Zawiyah (199,000 bpd)	
    - other unspecified terminals (333,000 bpd)	
    * Damage to infrastructure was reported to be light during the first few months of fighting
as both sides hoped to take full control of the country's oil industry. In March, officials said
the terminals of Ras Lanuf, Zueitina and Es Sider had suffered only minor damage during fighting
and some other oil towns had been left untouched.	
    * But damage has increased as fighting has continued. A rebel spokesman said on Aug. 15 that
Gaddafi's troops planned to destroy the oil terminal in Brega, still held by fighters loyal to
the government, to prevent it from falling into opposition hands. Rebels say Gaddafi's forces
sabotaged two large oil tanks over the weekend, which have been sending up clouds of smoke.
Brega refinery was reported to be still intact but could be a target, rebels said.	
    * It has not been possible to independently confirm reports of damage being done to oil
installations, an accusation rebels have previously levelled at government forces.
    * Libya's oil industry was formerly run by the state National Oil Co, which accounted for
around 50 percent of the country's output.	
    * Since fighting began, the Libyan National Council, with the help of Qatar has been able to
export a minimal amount of crude oil in the form of two partially laden tankers. The oil for
these cargoes was reported previously to have been in storage. One of these cargoes went to a
U.S. refinery and the other to Italy. No exports have been reported for several weeks.	
    * It is not clear how the oil industry will be structured after the war, but it may be
placed in the hands of the Arabian Gulf Oil Company (AGOCO), a company now run by Libyan rebels.
    * A Reuters poll of 20 analysts and industry officials last month forecast it would take up
to one year to restore Libyan output to at least 1 million bpd but up to two years to get back
to pre-civil war levels of 1.6 million bpd. 	
    * The longest forecast for a full recovery of oil output came from David Wech, head of
research at Vienna-based consultants JBC Energy. He said a return to full output capacity could
take three to four years because significant investment in infrastructure would be necessary.	
    * Oil industry consultancy Wood Mackenzie says it will take around 36 months for the country
to recover its full production capacity, from whenever the crisis is resolved. It estimates that
substantial oil volumes could be back in the market by late 2012 if a resolution is achieved by
the end of 2011. But the recovery period will extend if production remains shut-in for longer,
as infrastructure continues to deteriorate.	
    * Samuel Ciszuk, senior Middle East & North Africa energy analyst with IHS Energy, said oil
output could theoretically be restored in 18 months but that this would be the most optimistic
    * "Once there is a degree of security for their personnel, it should not take too long for
the oil firms to get their workers back in. If the money's right they will go back," said Mike
Wittner, Societe Generale head of oil market research in New York. But it was difficult to
assess how much damage had been done to oil facilities during the war, he said. "No one really
has a clear idea of how much damage to the oil infrastructure there has been ... Anytime you
shut a field down quickly and run off in a panic there will be problems."	
    * Foreign oil firms, essential for the quick resumption of production, have spoken to rebels
at length, but the future of existing contracts with Gaddafi's government is uncertain.   	
    * Italian producer ENI , present in Libya since the 1950s, is the biggest foreign
oil company there, producing 270,000 boed (barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2010. Its
contracts are in force to 2042 for oil production, but it is not yet clear if they would be
honored by any future government.	
    * The total equity share of the following foreign companies -- many of which operated fields
on behalf of Libya's National Oil Co -- amounted to almost 500,000 bpd before the conflict
began. The legal status of contracts after the civil war will need to be clarified. The table
below is based on data from consultancy IHS Herold and Reuters reports: 	
 Company           '000 bpd    Libya      Libya       Libya       Status 
                               share of   share of    share of    (last 
                               total oil  total gas   oil & gas   reported)
                               (pct)      (pct)       (pct)       
 Eni      108         10.7       18          13.7        Unclear
 Wintershall       98.6        72.0       4           29.2        Shut
 Total SA          60          4.3        0           2.7         Shut
0 : 0
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