January 17, 2012 / 1:27 PM / in 6 years

SocGen cuts carbon price forecasts by over 22 pct

LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Societe Generale on Tuesday lowered its price forecasts for European Union and U.N.-backed carbon, citing an over-supply of emission units, a worsening economic outlook in the EU and an expansion of low-carbon energy sources.

In a research report, the Paris-based bank said front-year EU Allowances (EUAs) would average 8.9 euros ($11.28) a tonne in 2012, down 28 percent from its previous estimate made last November.

It predicted EUAs, the price for a tonne of carbon dioxide emissions in the 27-nation bloc’s emissions trading scheme, would not rise above 15 euros a tonne before 2020.

SocGen slashed its average price forecasts for EUAs and CERs for deliveries in 2013 through 2015 by at least 22 percent across the board.

It cut its average 2012 price outlook for Certified Emission Reductions (CERs), which are carbon credits issued to clean energy projects under the U.N.’s Clean Development Mechanism, by 36 percent to 5 euros.

CERs would fall back to 3 euros a tonne after 2015, it said, pointing to flagging demand from the EU, home to the world’s biggest carbon market and main buyer of the U.N. offsets. ($1 = 0.7891 euros) (Reporting by Jeff Coelho; editing by Jason Neely)

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