LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Trading activity on the British wholesale gas market was subdued on Monday morning due to a school half-term break, with the within-day and front-month being the only products to trade.
* The within-day rose by 0.l0 pence to 21.50 p/therm by 0940 GMT.
* UK March contract fell by 0.35 p to 20.80 p/therm.
* “Trading is quiet because it’s a half-term break and lots of people are out,” a trader said, adding that liquidity is expected to remain reduced this week.
* UK gas system was 23.3 million cubic metres (mcm) undersupplied, with demand expected at 262.2 mcm and supply at 238.9 mcm, National Grid data showed.
* After storm Dennis hit Britain last week, wind generation is expected to remain robust, which tends to reduce gas-for-power demand.
* “UK wind power generation is forecast to remain above normal until late February with a slight drop in the middle of this week,” Refinitiv analysts said in a morning note.
* On Monday, peak wind production was forecast to reach 14 gigawatts (GW) out of 17.9 GW wind generation capacity, edging down to 13.5 GW on Tuesday, Elexon data showed.
* Monday gas-for-power demand was expected to be 17 mcm, lower than an earlier forecast and was predicted to rise slightly on Tuesday.
* Residential demand was expected to edge up on Monday compared with Friday, but the forecast was reduced by 34 mcm from an earlier prediction, Refinitiv data showed.
* Residential consumption could be reduced later this week as temperatures are expected to rise, the trader said.
* On the supply side, there was a strong drop in liquefied natural gas (LNG) sendout. A total of 61 mcm was forecast to be sent to the gas system, a 40 mcm drop from Friday volumes, data compiled by Refinitiv showed.
* Other supply sources were stable, with flows from the UK Continental Shelf expected to be at 129 mcm/day and imports from Norway at 63 mcm/day.
* On the Dutch market, the day-ahead price was down 0.40 euro at 8.75 euros per megawatt hour (MWh).
* The March gas price at the Dutch TTF hub was down 0.20 euro at 8.73 euros per MWh.
* The benchmark Dec-20 EU carbon contract was down 0.08 euro at 24.29 euros per tonne. (Reporting by Ekaterina Kravtsova; Editing by Aditya Soni)