* Tin strikes record at $28,190 a tonne
* Copper to average $9,663/T this year - Reuters poll
* Investors keep eye on lead dominant position
* Coming up: U.S. consumer confidence data on Tuesday
(Updates with New York closing copper price, adds New York dateline and analyst comments)
By Chris Kelly and Rebekah Curtis
NEW YORK/LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Copper ended up for a second consecutive day on Monday, and tin prices notched a new record high as supply-side constraints reinforced a bullish outlook for both metals.
Down about 5 percent from all-time records this year at $9,781 per tonne in London and $4.4980 per lb in New York, copper prices regained their composure late last week in anticipation of robust Chinese demand prospects, even as fears of tighter monetary policies there remained. [ID:nTOE70J02S]
London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for three-month delivery CMCU3 closed up $88 at $9,529 a tonne.
COMEX March copper HGH1 added 3.95 cents to settle at $4.3485 per lb, after dealing between $4.3090 and $4.3725.
LME tin CMSN3 hit a record high of $28,190 a tonne, before ending the day at $28,095, up $350 from Friday's close.
"Tin and copper are very supply constrained metals, that's not going to be resolved for many months, if not years," Robin Bhar, an analyst at Credit Agricole, said.
Indeed, a widening market deficit could propel copper to new record highs this year, as exchange-traded products and a narrowing supply surplus buoy prices, according to a Reuters poll. [ID:nLAE002208]
The consensus of 50 forecasts showed the cash copper price CMCU0 would average $9,663 a tonne this year.
Tin is forecast to rise almost 38 percent this year, according to the average of 24 forecasts, the Reuters poll showed, driven by dwindling reserves, rising demand, and unusually wet weather in big producer Indonesia. [ID:nLDE70N1E2] <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ For other stories from the survey: [MET/POLL] For full results of the survey: COMMODITYPOLL01 For a column on the poll results click [AHOME/] Graphic on prices: r.reuters.com/mut57r Graphic on prices versus 2010 average prices: r.reuters.com/nut57r Graphic on market balances: r.reuters.com/put57r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
Analysts expect to see further price volatility in the days ahead as markets adjust for the week-long Chinese Lunar New Year, set to begin on Feb. 3.
"While we are not expecting any extended sell-off's, temporary dips lower are likely," said Catherine Virga, senior base metals analyst with CPM Group.
"Chinese consumers have remained wary about restocking copper after running down their inventories during the last nine months of 2010 ... Chinese demand for overseas metals in expected to pick up during March, with seasonal pressures," she said.
Investors also focused on French President Nicolas Sarkozy's comments, as he laid out his G20 agenda on Monday, that he wanted regulation of commodity markets. [ID:nLDE70N0Y4]
While his comments appeared mostly targeted at agricultural commodities, some analysts believe it could affect sentiment through the rest of the commodities complex.
"I would expect more politicians to come out and make comments on this," said Alex Heath of RBC Capital Markets. "It's going to hit back on base metals."
Stocks of copper at LME warehouses resumed a recent rise, which has caused some caution among investors. Stocks last rose 200 tonnes to 381,500 tonnes.
Lead stocks rose 2,600 tonnes to 266,775 tonnes, lingering around the highest levels since May 1995.
Investors kept an eye on a dominant position controlling 80-90 percent of LME lead stock warrants and cash contracts <LME/WC>.
Barclays Capital declined to comment on Friday on market talk it was the holder of the position. [ID:nLDE70K1D7]
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Graphic on dominant positions in lead stock warrants and cash contracts <LME/WC> on the LME this year: here ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
LME lead CMPB3 ended down $20 at $2,405 a tonne.
Investors also focused on the backwardation on lead -- a premium for cash material over the three-month contract MPB0-3 -- which was at $60 a tonne.
The premium shot up to $85 a tonne on Friday, its highest since October 2007.
Metal Prices at 1728 GMT COMEX copper in cents/lb, LME prices in $/T and SHFE prices in yuan/T Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2010 Ytd Pct
move COMEX Cu 435.20 4.30 +1.00 444.70 -2.14 LME Alum 2413.00 -7.00 -0.29 2470.00 -2.31 LME Cu 9529.00 88.00 +0.93 9600.00 -0.74 LME Lead 2405.00 -20.00 -0.82 2550.00 -5.69 LME Nickel 26150.00 -25.00 -0.10 24750.00 5.66 LME Tin 28090.00 345.00 +1.24 26900.00 4.42 LME Zinc 2302.00 -16.00 -0.69 2454.00 -6.19 SHFE Alu 16850.00 5.00 +0.03 16840.00 0.06 SHFE Cu* 71780.00 810.00 +1.14 71850.00 -0.10 SHFE Zin 18835.00 25.00 +0.13 19475.00 -3.29 ** Benchmark month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07 (Additional reporting by Sue Thomas; Editing by Alison Birrane and Marguerita Choy)